Today's inflation report was the main reason for the rally as it looks like prices nominally are not getting much worse. But as I noted, that's true if you don't go to the gas station or grocery store. Home foreclosures rose yet again, and that may be something to get used to. Oil prices were down down $1.86 to $123.94 per barrel in after-hours trading. Here are the unofficial closing index levels:
China Architectural Engineering, Inc. (AMEX: RCH) saw another massive rise today based upon the Chinese earthquake. Shares were up 40% at $8.38 at the end of the day. Architecture, engineering, China, earthquake... what more did traders need to hear?
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) saw a sharp drop in shares after reporting earnings, and it pulled down other ag-stocks. The company said it was being impacted by tight part supplies and rising materials costs, and that sent shares tumbling 10% to $81.10 in the final minutes today.
Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) shares are falling after the company posted a second-quarter profit of $40 million, or 29 cents a share, below analysts' estimates of 30 cents per share. Growth has slowed for WFMI, which company executives are blaming on the slowing economy. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on WFMI.
After hitting a one-year high of $53.65 in October, the stock has hit a new one-year low today. This morning, WFMI opened at $30.17. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.96 and a high of $30.21. As of 12:10, WFMI is trading at $29.37, down $4.27 (-12.7%). The chart for WFMI looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bear-call credit spread above the $37 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.1% return in three months as long as WFMI is below $37 at August expiration. Whole Foods would have to rise by more than 26% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Macy's (NYSE: M), which was forecast to report a loss of a penny a share in the first quarter, said the difficult retail environment hurt sales and it incurred costs from a restructuring. The loss came to $59 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with a profit of $36 million, or 8 cents a share, a year earlier. (As the numbers are quite fresh, it's possible they include one-time item not yet sorted out and not comparable to analyst expectations.)
John Deere (NYSE: DE) said its second-quarter profit rose 22%. Deere experienced increased demand for its farm equipment, as crop prices kept rising, posting an 18% increase in sales. Profit for the quarter jumped to $763.5 million, or $1.74 per share, a penny below analyst estimates. From premarket early action, it seems shares of DE might start much lower.
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) also reported this morning, saying its first quarter loss widened to $151 million as the U.S. housing market worsened. Somehow, though, the results were not as poor as expected and FRE's loss of 66 cents a share beat estimates of a 92 cents a share loss. FRE's shares are up over 6% in premarket trading.
Still on earnings, last night Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) reported results. Shares of WFMI are plunging nearly 9% in premarket trading as the organic grocery chain reported a worse-than-forecast 13% profit fall.
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) shares are also declining over 2.8% in premarket trading after the suitor of Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) reported a widening quarterly loss and a disappointing outlook.
On Tuesday, microchip equipment maker Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) reported a drop in its fiscal second quarter earnings due in part to a glut of flash memory chips, and organic and natural food retailer Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) also said second quarter profits fell, due to integrating its Wild Oats acquisition.
Applied Materials posted earnings of $302.5 million, or 22 cents per share, for the quarter ended April 27, compared with a profit of $411.4 million or 29 cents per share in the same period a year ago. Its adjusted net income came to 24 cents per share, beating the average analyst forecast of 22 cents, according to Reuters estimates.
Second-quarter revenue fell to $2.15 billion from $2.53 billion in the previous year. Analysts on average had expected revenue of $2.13 billion.
Shares fell 1.3% after the news but rose 2.7% in after-hours trading to $20.40.
Whole Foods reported that sales surged 28% in the second quarter to $1.87 billion, from $1.4 billion in the previous year. But net income fell 13% to $40 million, or 29 cents per share, in the quarter ended April 13; the acquisition of rival Wild Oats cost it 6 cents per share.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had predicted a profit of 30 cents per share on revenue of $1.89 billion.
Shares of Whole Foods fell $2.94, or 8.7%, to $30.70 in after-hours trading.
The earnings party of last week was full of fun and frolic. For the most part, if you followed my list of recommendations, you would have had your very own "Fiesta de Finance." (See Week in Preview – May 5)
The earnings season is still in full swing and should provide a great deal of action for the companies that will be reporting. But these companies will have to fight through a few new economic barriers. With oil pushing past historic levels and questions beginning to surface concerning the ability of the investor to continue to support a market that has so many headwinds, the mood is likely to shift moving forward. It is time for discipline, short and simple. Now, more than ever investors need a plan. I cover this strategy in my book, The Disciplined Investor.
In the last installment of The Week in Preview, I was looking for party opportunities in honor of Cinco de Mayo. This week, Misery is the theme. That is the only word that comes to mind with oil at a level that you would have never expected, a massive and unrelenting credit and housing crisis and a banking system that is defunct.
Monday - May 12
We start the week with a report from IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB). This bank is smack in the middle of the housing problem. It is primarily a lending company that facilitates loans for single-family homes. It's also involved in the origination and trading of mortgages. How does that sound to you as an investment? Shares have slid from $23 in October 2007 to an unbelievable level of $3.50 recently. Ouch... If you are a shareholder still holding on with hope and a prayer for something...anything, keep on dreaming. The good news is that the stock is sporting a yield of 29%. But, if you think that yield is going to be maintained, I have a bridge for sale. Estimates are for a loss of $1.92 per share for the quarter.
Recently, the Environmental Working Group stated that celery is one of the so-called "Dirty Dozen," the twelve most contaminated fruits and vegetables on the market. As I was chewing on a piece of celery at the time, I began to notice the bitter overtones of what I assumed was a nasty chemical fertilizer. I began to wonder if it might be sarin or perhaps some dioxin derivative. Completely unable to enjoy my snack any longer, I resolved to find some organic celery.
After a long and fruitless (vegetable-less?) search, I finally broke down and decided to go to Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) . There, tucked into an extensive and impressive collection of colorful veggies, I found what I was looking for: fresh, organic celery. The price? $4.99.
To be honest, if I'm paying $4.99 for a vegetable, I expect it to pick my daughter up from daycare and maybe help out with the rent. I'm used to paying between $1 and $1.25 for a bunch of celery, which made Whole Foods' prices seem like a particularly tasteless joke. However, rather than throw the celery to the ground and loudly denounce Whole Foods as a bunch of money-grubbing ripoff artists, I politely returned the bunch to the counter and left.
There were two reasons for my restrained response: first, I'm saving up my first arrest for something special, like picketing Anne Coulter's funeral, and there's no way I'm getting carted off for yelling at a bunch of celery opportunists. The second reason is that I wasn't really all that surprised. You see, I've gotten used to Whole Foods' massively inflated prices and somewhat snotty attitude.
In a sign that you can't keep a good man down, the SEC has dropped its investigation into message board postings by Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) CEO John Mackey.
Reuters writes that the agency as "concluded a probe into its chief executive's anonymous Web chat room messages about then-rival Wild Oats Markets and recommended no action be taken."
Mackey can now go back to posting on other subjects but will have to come up with a new name to disguise his real identify. The old one, Rahodeb, has already been taken.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
It seems that $20 billion deal to merge Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) and Northwest Airlines Corp. (NYSE: NWA) could be in jeopardy due to pilot negotiators over blending seniority lists. While the pilots unions have agreed on a comprehensive joint contract, they are unable to agree to how seniority for the 12,000 pilots would work under a combined carrier.
PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) reaffirmed its 2008 earnings forecast of at least $3.72 a share, a penny below the average analyst expectation. In addition, PepsiCo said it plans to repurchase about $4.3 billion in shares during 2008.
Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) shares are climbing over 8.2% in premarket trading after the telecommunication company reported that fourth-quarter earnings jumped 70% to $307.3 million, or $1.39 a share, boosted by higher automotive/mobile unit revenue as the company experienced strong holiday demand for the its digital navigation devices. Excluding items, earnings were $1.31 a share for the quarter, beating estimates of earnings of $1.11 a share for the quarter. Analysts' estimates usually exclude items. Sales doubled, climbing to $1.22 billion from $611.2 million a year ago. The company expects 2008 overall revenue to exceed $4.5 billion and earnings to exceed $4.40 a share.
Wal-Mart has only fallen short of earnings expectations in one of the past ten quarters. When the company reported third-quarter fiscal 2008 results back in November, earnings came to 69 cents per share, beating the consensus forecast of analysts polled by Thomson Financial by two cents. Earnings were 72 cents per share in the previous quarter, and 62 cents in the third quarter of 2007. For the current quarter, analysts expect earnings of $1.02 per share, compared to 92 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Wal-Mart's 10.6% earnings per share growth forecast for the next year is better than the industry average and the S&P 500. The analysts' consensus recommendation has been to buy Wal-Mart for at least six months. Shares reached a 52-week high of $51.48 in the beginning of February, but closed Friday at $49.44.
For news on Wal-Mart and its rivals that could influence the earnings results, see BloggingStocks' Wal-Mart coverage.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The coal sector, independent refiners and Alexion Pharmaceuticals were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded the coal sector to Cautious from Neutral, citing valuations and expectations for lower coal prices. The firm downgraded CONSOL Energy (NYSE: CNX) Peabody Energy (NYSE: BTU) to Neutral from Buy and Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Sell from Neutral.
Lehman downgraded independent refiners, including Alon USA Energy (NYSE: ALJ), to Negative from Neutral and continues to believe that 2H07 marked an inflection point for U.S. refiners, which are transitioning from a multiyear up-cycle into a new downtrend.
Alexion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALXN) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia following the company's Q4 results, as they believe management's revenue guidance represents a best-case scenario.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Lehman lowered Bayer (OTC: BAYRY) to Equal Weight from Overweight and Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) to Underweight from Equal Weight.
Lehman Brothers has downgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) from "equal weight" to "underweight" and lowered its price target to $32 from $35, according toBriefing.com. The news service also writes that Citigroup has added Brocade (NASDAQ: BRCD) to its "Top Picks" list.
Whole Foods Market (NASDAQ: WFMI) is banning plastic bags from its 270 locations. The switch to a choice between reusable bags and paper will take effect on Earth Day, April 22.
It's certainly a bold move and demonstrates a lot of concern for the environment. It will also spruce up Whole Foods' image as an environmentally-conscious retailer and generate a ton of free publicity for the company, starting with the New York Timesstory.
Whole Foods has served as a trend-setter for the larger grocery chains, and this move could inspire stores like Kroger (NYSE: KR) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) to make similar switches, depending on how it works out.
During its trial runs, Whole Foods found that eliminating plastic only led to a 10% increase in paper bag use, demonstrating that consumers tend to switch to the reusable bags.
That's good for the environment, and it also cuts costs: Even Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) has taken notice by phasing in reusable bags as a third option. The plastic bag seems destined for obsolescence.
The 21st century may be the end of the "Plastics, young man!" era.
The earnings party of last week was full of fun and frolic. For the most part, if you followed my list of recommendations, you would have had your very own "Fiesta de Finance." (
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Whole Foods Market
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